☀️☕️ Payments to US Obesity Specialists: Uh Oh Novo

📝 Focus

• Uh Oh Novo

📊 In the Markets

• Samba time! Brazil Cuts

📖 MoneyFitt Explains

• 🎓️ US Treasury Securities (Bonds and Bills)

💸 Personal Finance Corner

• How to Purchase Shares and Invest in the Stock Market

📝 Focus

Our guest writer flags an important investigation into the sales practices of Novo Nordisk, the maker of the blockbuster diabetes and weight-loss drugs, Ozempic and Wegovy. Novo is Europe’s largest company, just pipping LVMH and one more example of Denmark punching well above its weight on the world stage. We first wrote about Novo in relation to its promising work addressing Alzheimer’s (which some label “Type 3 diabetes”.) and there are also signs of success in kidney disease. 

Uh Oh Novo

A recent Reuters report reveals very concerning figures on Novo Nordisk's payments to U.S. obesity specialists - over $25 million paid to doctors over 10 years, with one key opinion leader, Dr. Kaplan, receiving $1.4 million alone. 

These rich financial incentives raise red flags about the potential to improperly influence medical recommendations.

In return, these well-compensated physicians have advocated an extremely aggressive stance in treating overweight patients - pushing for lifelong prescribing of new medications like Wegovy to up to half the adult population. 

However, the safety risks still require further long-term investigation. Intestinal blockages, muscle wasting, suicidal ideation - these side effects cannot be taken lightly. 

Yet the full effects may take years to emerge.

 ..... ▷ As Singapore and other countries grapple with rising obesity levels, I shudder at the thought of new drug marketing campaigns that prioritise rapid uptake and profits over judicious assessment of risks versus benefits. 

Patients are not guinea pigs for testing expansive, premature treatment hypotheses. Caution is warranted, but industry payments can cloud that clinical judgment.

 ..... ▷ This Reuters exposé on questionable industry payments to U.S. obesity specialists raises critical concerns about conflicts of interest, medical ethics, maintaining patient trust, and evidence-based medicine in obesity treatment guidance. 

As obesity rates rise globally, all countries must learn from this case and ensure transparency while mitigating bias in practice. 

 ..... ▷ Caution is warranted until long-term safety data demonstrates whether the benefits outweigh the risks and benefits of aggressive treatment paradigms. 

We must demand independent guidance, putting patients first, and sound the alarm when problems abroad become issues at home. As consumers, we must also stay informed and speak up when concerns arise. 

The key tenet "first, do no harm" must remain paramount.

Guest writer: Dr. Christina Chua: SVP in Wealth Management, Where Finance Gets Serious and Fun Gets a PhD. This article is for information only and not investment advice. The writer may have long or short positions in the companies mentioned above. All opinions are hers and hers alone. Please see the important disclaimer at the bottom.

🇸🇬 Singapore: Let’s Get MoneyFitt!

📊 In the Markets

European stocks closed higher on Thursday after the Bank of England and the ECB both kept policy unchanged, largely as expected.

But the ECB revised down its growth forecasts, pushing back at the idea of an imminent rate cut (and sending the euro to a 2-week high against the USD), while the BOE said interest rates are “likely to need to be restrictive for an extended period of time.”

And on the day after the Fed’s “Dovish Pause,” US stocks again closed higher (with the Dow Jones Industrial Average achieving a second consecutive record close.) 

Market watchers noted that the market, being “overbought” by most measures, was due for a consolidation or a pause, especially after the previous day's surge, yet volume traded (which refers to the number of shares) was unusually heavy. 

Apple briefly hit an all-time high during the day but closed with a modest 0.08% gain. Meanwhile, Tesla soared by 4.9%, totalling about $40 billion in traded value. The semiconductor sector soared, with the Philly semiconductor index (SOX) reaching a new high. The Russell 2000 Index of smaller firms continued to run, with a 2.7% spike. 

The rally continued in the bond market, with the closely followed 10-year Treasury yields at 3.94%, falling below 4% for the first time since early August.

But November saw an unexpected rise in retail sales, signalling a robust beginning to the holiday shopping season amid extensive discounts. The Commerce Department's Census Bureau reported a 0.3% increase in retail sales following October's 0.2% decline, contrary to economists' predictions of a 0.1% dip. At 4.1% year-on-year growth, this makes an early rate cut less likely, but keeps the economy on track for a soft landing.

Samba time! Brazil Cuts

Brazil’s benchmark stock index Bovespa surged to a new intraday peak on Thursday, part of a worldwide uptick spurred by expectations of looser monetary policies. 

The rally followed the Central Bank of Brazil's interest rate cut and the US Federal Reserve's dovish tilt. 

Banco Central do Brasil lowered its key rate by 0.5 percentage points to 11.75%, which was largely as predicted, and hinted heavily at further reductions in the future.

 ..... ▷ Brazil's central bank was one of the very first to respond to post-pandemic inflation by raising interest rates. 

While many central banks waited until 2022 to begin raising rates (Jay Powell’s “transitory inflation” Fed very much included), Brazil proactively started to tighten monetary policy as early as March 2021.

Brazil embarked on a 12-month cycle of aggressive consecutive rate increases, raising the Selic policy rate from a record low of 2% to a peak of 13.75% by September 2022, the world's most aggressive rate-hiking cycle at the time.

 ..... ▷ In August 2020, as the pandemic raged worldwide, the bank had slashed the Selic from 4.25% to 2.00%.

GDP shrank 3.3% in 2020.

However, the rebound in services demand after the pandemic, soaring food and fuel prices due to the Ukraine war and global supply chain disruptions led to soaring inflation. 

According to the World Bank, consumer inflation in Brazil peaked at 12.1% in April 2022, just a month after the first interest rate hike.

 ..... ▷ Inflation then kept falling from double-digits in mid-2022 to within the target range by May 2023 and now stands at 4.68% as of November 2023.

Brazil’s GDP rebounded to 5.0% in 2021 and 2.9% in 2022 despite the massive hikes, driven by strong fiscal stimulus, a successful vaccination campaign, a generally favourable commodity market and continued demand for services.

The outlook remains solid for 2023, with the World Bank expecting growth of 2.6%, driven by agriculture and boosted by household and government consumption.